Macro-economic data to drive Indian equities markets in the coming weeks

Improvement in the pace of reforms and upcoming macro economic numbers,as well as the prospects in the winter session of parliament will set the tone for the Indian equities markets during the upcoming week.

Mumbai: Acceleration in the reforms process, coupled with upcoming macro economic numbers and cues on the winter session of parliament, will set the tone for the Indian equities markets during the upcoming weekly trade.

Hopes of the goods and services tax (GST) bill getting passed during the winter session beginning Nov 26 is expected to support the key bellwether indices.

"After the Bihar outcome, the foreign direct investment (FDI) reform has revived some of the weak sentiments," Devendra Nevgi, chief executive of ZyFin Advisors, told IANS.

"Again eyes will be on the winter session of parliament and what US Federal Reserve does in December, as strong data has raised the probability of a hike."

Attractive valuation on account of three consecutive weeks of slide too will count as a major trigger for the bellwether indices. Value buying opportunity is expected to lure back the evasive foreign investors.

"Interests of foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) and commodity price trends will dictate the bourse's trajectory," Gaurav Jain, director with Hem Securities, elaborated.

"Nifty may see a pullback in the week with major support at 7,500 points level."

Foreign investors went in for a selling frenzy during the last week. According to the National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) the FPIs bought Rs.1,536.8 crore or $ 233.23 million in equity and debt markets during November 9-13.

The data with stock exchanges showed that the FPIs sold stocks worth Rs.2,281.64 crore in the period under review.

On the other hand, the domestic institutional investors (DIIs) bought stocks worth Rs.1,360.92 crore during the last trading week.

The flight of foreign capital from Indian exchanges impacted the rupee value. On a week-on-week basis, the rupee weakened by 34 paise to 66.10 to a US dollar (November 13) from its previous close of 65.76 to a greenback (November 6).

Besides, Bihar poll rout for the central government, domestic macro numbers such as wholesale price index (WPI), balance of trade (BoP) and reserve banks' take on the lackluster industrial output and marginal uptick in inflation will dictate the trajectory of Indian stocks.

"Investors will watch out for October trade data and for any arrest in declining exports," Vaibhav Agrawal, vice president, research, Angel Broking, told IANS.

"We also expect consumer inflation data from the US and Euro to impact markets. With the overhang of the Bihar elections out of the way and earnings season coming to an end, markets will now react to global cues over the coming week."

In addition to the domestic macro number, the heightened chances of US rate hike and further cues towards it will keep the Indian market on tenterhooks.

"With volatility increasing in the global markets, the coming week could see similar volatility in the Indian markets as well," Nitasha Shankar, vice president for research with Yes Securities, told IANS.

"The major overhang on global markets and subsequently on Indian markets is the risk of an interest rate hike in the US. The probability of this has gone up significantly in recent times driven by the positive economic news coming from US."

Furthermore, signs on the upcoming winter session of parliament in the aftermath of the Bihar poll and ongoing debate over tolerance in the society will be another key trigger to watch out for.

"The winter session will be a key event, especially after the Bihar election outcome; the opposition may act in a more united manner. The election setback has put doubts over the government's ability to continue with the reforms, and pass key bills in the Rajya Sabha," Anand James, co-head, technical research desk with Geojit BNP Paribas Financial Services, told IANS.

"The government has already fired the first salvo with the FDI announcements, thus stating that it is firmly on the reform path."

Recently, the central government had hiked FDI limits in at least 15 sectors. Further, it had empowered the executive to clear greater sums of foreign investments.