Pakistan's Cricket World Cup 2023 Semifinals Qualification Scenario: Babar Azam's Side Can Practically Qualify Only If They Bat First; Here's How

Babar Azam's Pakistan have themselves to be blamed for being in a situation like this. They have a mountain to climb to qualify for the semi-finals of World Cup. The good thing is that the hope has not completely diminished.

Babar Azam in deep thoughts. (Image: AP)

Pakistan face England today in Cricket World Cup 2023. The Babar Azam-led side can still, mathematically, qualify for the semi-finals of the tournament. But the difference in the Net Run Rates (NRR) between New Zealand and them is what makes Pakistan's chance almsot negligible. The Men In Green are placed on the fifth spot in the points table with 4 wins from 8 matches. They have NRR of 0.036. NZ's NRR is 0.743. If Pakistan beat England today, NZ and PAK will have same points but a better NRR is likely to take Black Caps into semis while Pakistan will be knocked out. 

How can Pakistan beat NZ's NRR to qualify for CWC 2023 semis?

The maths for Pakistan is very simple yet complicated. Pakistan can win by bigger margins to qualify while batting or bowlins first. But their best chance is dependent on the toss. Expect England captain Jos Buttler to opt to bat first if they win the toss. For a simple reason that Pakistan won't be able to regitser the margin of win they require if they are chasing. 

Training under lights in Kolkata _#CWC23 pic.twitter.com/BghfFfjInk— Pakistan Cricket (@TheRealPCB) November 9, 2023

If England bat first, Pakistan will have to chase down a target of 20 in 1.3 overs. A target of 50 in 2.5 overs. A target of 150, in 3.4 overs. Targte of 150 in 3.4 overs. Target of 200 in 4.3 overs and 300 in 6.1 overs. These scenarios are unachievable. The best scenario while batting second is to chase don 20 in 9 balls and 50 in 17. But for that to happen, Pakistan will need to bowl England out on such low scores, which is highly unlikely.

Pakistan's best chance to qualify for semis is when they win toss and opt to bat first. If Pakistan bat first and make 500, the will need to bowl out England at or below 211. If they score 450, England should be bowled out for 162. If they put up 400 runs on the board, Pakistan must bowl out England for 112 or below. Scoring 350 in the first innings, Pakistan will be required to bowl England out for 63. And if Pakistan make just 300, England need to be restricted to just 13 runs. 

These are also nearly impossible scenario but they are more achievable than chasing.

If Pakistan fail to make the cut, they will look back at the big loss vs India as the reason behind their poor NRR. They had also lost to Australia by 62 runs which dented their NRR further. The close loss to South Africa, at the same time, will hurt Pakistan.