Analysis: Assembly Elections Exit Polls A Wake-Up Call For BJP Ahead Of 2024 Lok Sabha Election?

The BJP is facing a stiff challenge in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan while it appears to have failed in uprooting the Congress government in Chhattisgarh.

Six months ahead of the crucial Lok Sabha Elections 2024, five states went to polls and the results for them will be out on December 3. While the exit poll results have been declared today, the survey paints a grim picture for the BJP which will be seeking a third term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2024. In 2023 alone, six mid-sized to big states went to the polls. This includes Tripura, Karnataka, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Telangana. While the BJP managed to retain Tripura with a decreased vote share, it faced a humiliating defeat in Karnataka. The party has also been forced to ally with the JJP in Haryana after failing to secure a majority. Now, the party is facing a stiff challenge in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan while it appears to have failed in uprooting the Congress government in Chhattisgarh. On the other hand, its dream of winning a good amount of seats in Telangana also appears to have crash-landed with the Congress being projected as the winner. 

While the saffron party's poll promises made during campaigning in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh showed that it's ready to concede ground on certain issues, the exit polls hint that the damage has already been done. The key issue that is swinging the poll results are paper leaks, high prices of LPG cylinders and petrol which affects the poor and the middle class the most. While the BJP promised to further subsidize LPG and cut VAT on petrol if voted to power in Rajasthan, the issues are not limited to the desert state only. The high LPG and petrol prices affect Indians across demography and the inflation has added salt to the wounds of the poor.

On the other hand, the BJP is facing a challenge to match the promises like monthly financial assistance, free electricity and bus rides as promised by the Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). The saffron party tried to mitigate that challenge by launching the Ladli Behan Yojana in Madhya Pradesh, the learning came only after the party faced a huge setback in Karnataka. Since 2019, the BJP has already suffered setbacks in many states and the number of states ruled by the saffron party has decreased significantly with the party losing Himachal Pradesh, Bihar, and Jharkhand and Tamil Nadu (alliance with AIADMK). 

The BJP has indicated that it's willing to lower the LPG & petrol prices (in Rajasthan) while doubling the PM Kisan Samman Nidhi amount. However, the party needs to prove its intentions by implementing these promises irrespective of the December 3 results of the five states. On the other hand, Congress has alredy been providing free electricity and cheaper LPG in the states it rules.

The Congress party appears to have emerged stronger in the last four years with the party winning Himachal, Karnataka and now Telangana as well if the exit polls are to be believed. If it manages to retain Chhattisgarh as predicted, the party will emerge stronger and confident among the INDIA alliance. The Congress has already realised that welfare schemes and promises do play a critical role in polls and the same has already been proved in Karnataka and Himachal Pradesh as well. By retaining Chhattisgarh and winning Telangana, the Congress might give some sleepless nights to the BJP ahead of the 2024 parliamentary polls.