In-depth analysis: Hills feel the heat with Himachal Pradesh Assembly Election announcement

Himachal Pradesh Assembly Polls 2022: Political observers told IANS the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has managed an edge over its seemingly somnolent rival Congress by already launching a statewide campaign with a back-to-back public meetings by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and party`s national leadership comprising J.P. Nadda and Anurag Thakur.

Himachal Pradesh Assembly Polls 2022: The political landscape in the cool environs of Himachal Pradesh heated up with the Election Commission on Friday announcing the poll schedule for the 68-member Assembly - polling on November 12 and counting of ballots on December 8. Political observers told IANS the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has managed an edge over its seemingly somnolent rival Congress by already launching a statewide campaign with a back-to-back public meetings by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and party`s national leadership comprising J.P. Nadda and Anurag Thakur. Congress leader Priyanka Gandhi Vadra on Friday formally launched the party`s election campaign after paying obeisance at Maa Shoolini Temple in Solan town. She addressed the Parivartan Pratigya Rally.

Himachal election: BJP vs AAP vs Congress

The fledgling Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), it seems, is attempting to conquer the state with an army without a general. So far, the party in power in the national capital and neighbouring Punjab has not been able to rope in any prominent leader to head the team in the Hill state.

Political pundits believe the situation is not very different from Punjab where the party had only Bhagwant Mann at the helm of affairs. But it may not work in Himachal where the political parties almost always announce the Chief Ministerial candidate`s name well before the polls.

The Congress is also dithering over the Chief Ministerial face in the absence of its stalwart and six-time Chief Minister Virbhadra Singh.

With the passing away of Virbhadra Singh, who literally `ruled` the political landscape single-handedly for almost six decades, the somnolent Congress seems fractured and divided in his absence. No other leader enjoys the mass appeal and popularity that he had.

Political observers believe the BJP, which is facing anti-incumbency, has somehow managed an edge over its rival Congress by making it clear that the party will go to the polls under the leadership of first-time Chief Minister Jai Ram Thakur. Most probably, the party is likely to retain him for the post, if the BJP comes back to power.

A look at BJP's strategy in Himachal Pradesh

The Election Commission announced that the state would vote for a new assembly on November 12 and the counting would be held on December 8. The term of the assembly ends on January 8 next year. While Chief Minister Thakur has already carried out a whirlwind tour of the state ahead of the announcement of polls, the Congress is banking on its Central top leadership, with minimal chance of Rahul Gandhi touring the state owing to his preoccupation with `Bharat Jodo Yatra`.

Its state senior leaders -- Mukesh Agnihotri, Kaul Singh Thakur, Sukhvinder Sukhu, Harsh Vardhan, Sudhir Sharma and Asha Kumari -- are concentrating on their respective seats only. The BJP had won a majority in the 2017 Assembly polls with 44 seats in the 68-member Assembly.

Sounding the poll bugle with an emphasis the government "lays the foundation stone of a project and inaugurates itself", the Prime Minister on Thursday launched projects related to pharmaceuticals, education, railways and rural roads with saying these will have positive impact on the region`s progress.

And also with a message that this became a reality with the state`s double-engine government that has ensured "approvals for projects and their fast progress".

This was the Prime Minister`s ninth visit to the state in the five years and second in almost a week.

Earlier, Modi inaugurated development works and laid foundation stones of over Rs 3,650 crore spread across various sectors, comprising AIIMS Bilaspur, on October 5. On that day, Modi became the first Prime Minister to pay obeisance to Kullu Valley`s chief deity Lord Raghunath in the Dussehra festivity in Kullu town amidst the presence of nearly 300 deities.

Will Congress' Pratibha Singh be able to make a difference?

Unlike her husband Virbhadra Singh, who had a direct connect even at the grassroots, Congress state unit chief Pratibha Singh, who has never contested the Assembly poll, is spearheading the campaign by banking on its promise to bring back the Old Pension Scheme (OPS) that will benefit 225,000 employees, a crucial vote bank.

However, the "divided" Congress is struggling to speak with one voice over key issues to put the government in the dock over corruption, deteriorating law and order situation, rising debt, an education scam of selling more than 45,000 fake degrees and the constable recruitment question paper leak that was sold for Rs 6 lakh to Rs 8 lakh.

The only saving grace for the Congress is induction of former BJP chief Khimi Ram, once a close confidante of former Chief Minister and BJP veteran Prem Kumar Dhumal. He served as a legislator from Banjar assembly constituency twice from 2003 to 2012.

Also the Congress managed to rope in BJP leader Indu Verma, who is the wife of late Rakesh Verma, a three-time legislator. The family has a base in Shimla district.

But leaders foresee more trouble in the Congress with the granting of tribal status by the Central government to nearly 2.50 lakh voters settled mainly in Sirmaur district, a demand pending for five decades.

The state party leadership fears an exodus of its leaders, comprising two sitting lawmakers -- Harsh Vardhan and Vinay Kumar, an HPCC working president, who have been "hobnobbing" with the BJP.

Significance of Hatti community voters in Himachal elections

The Hatti community, who got the Scheduled Tribe status this month, is based mainly in the 133 panchayats dotting the trans-Giri area, which is part of the Shimla (reserved) seat. Union Home Minister Amit Shah is coming on Saturday to attend a thanks-giving rally in Sataun in Sirmaur district being organised by the Hatti community. State BJP President Suresh Kashyap said the people of the Hatti community are extremely happy on getting the tribal status after a long struggle of 55 years.

"This rally will be landmark rally as the people of Hatti will be taking part in massive numbers," Kashyap, who also belongs to the area dominated by the Hattis, told IANS.

The BJP in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections had won all the four seats of Himachal that saw 72.25 per cent polling.