Will Results Of Assembly Polls 2023 Impact Outcome Of 2024 Lok Sabha Elections? An Analysis

While the fate of several smaller parties is also at stake at the state assembly elections, the focus will be on the two big parties - Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Indian National Congress (INC). Will the results of December 3 and 4, 2023 be an indicator of the 2024 Lok Sabha election results?

The results of five state assembly elections - Rajasthan, Telangana, Mizoram, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh - will be declared today and tomorrow, that is December 3 (all four states except Mizoram) and December 4 (Mizoram). While the fate of several smaller parties is also at stake, the focus will be on the two big parties - Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Indian National Congress (INC). The five state polls are touted by many as the semi-final for the 2024 Lok Sabha Elections. But will the results of state elections act as an indicator for Lok Sabha polls? Let's find out.

The BJP will be hoping to wrest power from the Congress in Chattisgarh and Rajasthan, while the Congress will try to hold on to the states and win Madhya Pradesh, among others. The exit polls have predicted a close contest between the two parties in most states and gave the Grand Old Party an edge in Telangana, which currently has the local  Bharat Rashtra Samithi in power. But whatever the outcome, will it at all impact the 2024 Lok Sabha Polls?

According to reports, the voting pattern is not always the same when it comes to state assembly polls and Lok Sabha polls. In Rajasthan, in 2018-19, the Congress won the state election but failed to win even a single seat from the state in the Lok Sabha. In Madhya Pradesh, while the Congress won more seats than the BJP and initially formed a government in 2018, in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections,  it was reduced to just one seat. In Chhattisgarh, since 2003 - the state was formed in 2000 - BJP has dominated the Assembly elections in most polls, irrespective of the results at Lok Sabha elections. According to reports, Mizoram is the only state among these 5 which seems to be giving a clear picture in terms of Assembly Vs Lok Sabha polls. As per reports, since 1998, the party that has won the state has gone on to win the solitary Lok Sabha seat in the state. Telangana was formed only in 2014. In the 2018 Assembly poll, TRS (now BRS) took the lion's share while both BJP and Congress did well in Lok Sabha polls.

In the Hindi heartland especially - Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh - BJP has had a consistent edge at the Lok Sabha level since 1999. Smaller parties, which do very well at state-level, tend to fare far poorly at Lok Sabha levels and this is true not just for these five states. While the result of the Assembly Elections is not usually indicative of Lok Sabha polls results, nevertheless a win at the state level will boost the morale of the parties and party workers. Winning important states also ensures that a political party has funds that are very much needed to fight the Lok Sabha polls.