The rains are coming! 0% probability of 'deficient' monsoon this year, says IMD

El Nino conditions have turned from neutral to negative, the IMD said.

New Delhi: In what will come as a huge relief for our drought-stricken country, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), Thursday, said that there is zero percent probability of deficient monsoon this year.

The Met department said that there is 96 percent probability that monsoon will be normal and in excess.

The IMD added that the El Nino conditions have turned from neutral to negative - El Nino events weaken the summer westerly winds (blowing from west to east) over the Indian Ocean.

Also, monsoon rains will begin in Kerala within the next 4-5 days, the IMD said. The normal onset date for monsoon is June 1.

Interestingly, the forecast of monsoon onset issued during the past 11 years (from 2005-2015) except 2015 has proved to be correct. This includes the error margin of plus or minus 4 days.

In its earlier forecast for this year, the IMD had estimated that there was a 92 percent chance of India receiving "normal" and above rainfall this season with good amount of rain expected in Central India and along the West coast while some pockets of Bihar and East Uttar Pradesh could experience less precipitation.

There are 50 percent chances of India receiving "normal" rainfall in June while the figure will jump to 60 percent in July and August. In September, there are 40 percent chances of India receiving "normal" rainfall and 50 per cent chances of "above normal" rainfall, IMD had forecasted.

State specific forecast

The IMD will start giving state-specific monsoon forecast from next year.

"IMD will start making state-wise monsoon forecast from 2017 apart from zone-wise prediction," Union Minister for Earth Sciences Harsh Vardhan had said a few days back.

"From next year, we will start a spatial model. We will start giving monthly models. These are in advanced stages. There is a detailed plan to take it to the block level in next 2-3 years," Vardhan had said.

The IMD currently gives zone-specific daily monsoon forecast during the season for northwest, central India, southern peninsula and east and northeast regions. It is further divided into sub-zones.