Asteroid 2024 YR4, Bigger Than Football Field, Poses Level 3 Threat To Earth; May Hit Northern India On...

Asteroid 2024 YR4: A massive asteroid, larger than a football field, is speeding toward Earth. Scientists say it has a higher-than-average chance of colliding with the planet in 2032. The International Astronomy Center (IAC) in Abu Dhabi has warned that the asteroid, named '2024 YR4,' will pass very close to Earth and carries a real risk of impact. 

NASA's Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) first discovered the asteroid on December 27, 2024. The space rock is estimated to be between 40 to 100 meters in diameter. This makes it at least twice the size of a cricket pitch and possibly as long as an entire football field, according to IAC Vice-President Shawkat Odeh, who is also a member of the International Asteroid Warning Network. 

NASA and other space agencies are closely tracking the asteroid’s path. Experts have rated it as a level 3 threat on the Torino scale. The chances of 2024 YR4 striking Earth on December 22, 2032, are currently 1.3%, or 1 in 77. Beyond 2032, its cumulative chance of impact rises slightly to 1.4%, or 1 in 71.

The IAC report states that the asteroid last came close to Earth on December 25, 2024. At that time, it was 829,000 kilometers away. Its next near pass will be on December 17, 2028, but scientists say there is no danger of collision then, according to Odeh. 

However, the asteroid’s flyby on December 22, 2032, is different. Odeh warned that this event carries a significant risk due to the asteroid’s large size and uncertain trajectory. 

There is also concern over where the asteroid could hit if it collides with Earth. Data suggests that on December 22, 2032, the asteroid will pass Earth at a distance of around 127,699 km, with an uncertainty margin of 1.408 million km. Reports indicate that the potential impact zone stretches from the Pacific Ocean to South America, the Atlantic Ocean, central Africa, and even northern India. 

Odeh mentioned that the asteroid was visible for only 34 days after its discovery. It is now hard to detect because it reflects very little light. He urged observatories worldwide to keep monitoring the object closely. 

If the asteroid does hit, how much damage could it cause? Scientists compare it to the asteroid that triggered the Tunguska event in Siberia in 1908. That explosion flattened 2,000 square kilometers of forest and knocked down 80 million trees. Experts estimate that an impact from 2024 YR4 could cause local destruction but is unlikely to trigger global catastrophe. 

The Tunguska event’s force was equal to 10-15 megatons of TNT. If 2024 YR4 collides with Earth, the effects would depend on where it lands. Scientists will continue to monitor the asteroid and refine their predictions in the coming years.